Canada’s Submarine Procurement Project: Strategic Reboot and Geopolitical Ripple Effects

Canada’s ambitious plan to acquire 12 new submarines through the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) has attracted significant international attention, especially from Russia.

As Canada faces increasing geopolitical challenges, particularly in its Arctic waters, the country has set its sights on modernizing its submarine fleet. The Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) is in the early stages of one of the most ambitious defence projects in recent history, the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP). This project aims to replace the aging Victoria-class submarines with up to 12 new, state-of-the-art vessels that would be capable of operating in Canada’s three oceans: the Pacific, Atlantic, and the increasingly accessible Arctic.

The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) and Its Strategic Necessity

Canada’s current submarine fleet, composed of four Victoria-class submarines, has been showing signs of age, with operational issues and frequent repairs. These vessels, purchased second-hand from the United Kingdom in the 1990s, are expected to remain in service until the mid-2030s thanks to ongoing modernization efforts. However, Canada recognizes that it must start planning now to avoid capability gaps in the future. As such, the Department of National Defence (DND) has launched the CPSP to explore options for replacing the Victoria-class fleet, with a reported budget of up to $60 billion.

Vice-Admiral Angus Topshee, Commander of the RCN, emphasized the need for at least eight submarines, possibly even 12, to ensure Canada’s ability to effectively operate in all three of its oceanic theaters. This would involve positioning four submarines each in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic, a configuration deemed critical for maintaining continuous operational readiness.

On September 15, 2024, Canada released a Request for Information (RFI) to the defense industry, soliciting feedback on the potential submarine designs that could meet the country’s stringent requirements. These requirements include stealth, lethality, endurance, and Arctic operability, all of which are vital in ensuring that Canada can maintain its maritime sovereignty and project naval power when necessary. Respondents have been asked to submit feedback by November 18, 2024, which will help shape the procurement process moving forward.

The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) comes on the heels of the announcement earlier this year in April of “Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence” which outlines Canada’s response to evolving global security threats, emphasizing the need for a robust and modernized military.

Submarine Contenders and Their Capabilities

Several international players have expressed interest in supplying Canada with its next-generation submarines. Potential contenders include:

• Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (Germany): Offering the Type 212CD, a diesel-electric submarine with air-independent propulsion (AIP) that is renowned for its stealth and endurance.

• Navantia (Spain): Proposing the S-80, another diesel-electric submarine featuring AIP technology, designed for long-range missions.

• Hanwha Ocean/HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea): Offering the Ahn Changho-class, which features advanced weaponry and sonar systems.

• Saab/Damen Shipyards (Sweden/Netherlands): Suggesting the C-71, a highly capable and versatile submarine optimized for Arctic conditions.

Each of these contenders brings different strengths, but all are aligned with Canada’s key demands: the ability to operate in harsh Arctic environments, long-range endurance, and sophisticated sonar and torpedo technology. Given that Canada is expected to award the contract by 2028, the country must balance technological capabilities, cost, and long-term industrial partnerships in its decision-making process.

Geopolitical Implications: Russia’s Reaction

Canada’s ambitious submarine procurement project has not gone unnoticed by global powers, particularly Russia, which views the move as a potential threat. Russia’s increasing interest in the Arctic, an area rich in untapped resources and strategically important waterways, has placed the region at the forefront of international power struggles. With its own fleet of nuclear-powered submarines frequently patrolling Arctic waters, Russia sees any expansion of Canada’s undersea capabilities as a direct challenge to its dominance in the region.

In a revealing article published by Russian defence journalist Alexander Timokhin in Vzglyad, an online newspaper with reported ties to the Kremlin, the strategic implications of Canada’s proposed submarine fleet were laid bare. Timokhin acknowledged that Canada’s current fleet is not seen as a significant threat due to its age and limited capabilities. However, the prospect of 12 modern, diesel-electric submarines equipped with advanced Western sonar and torpedo technology has caused considerable concern in Moscow.

According to Timokhin, these new submarines could lie silent under Arctic ice or even on the seabed near Russian naval bases, undetected by Russia’s own sonar systems. He suggested that in the event of a confrontation under the Arctic’s icy waters, Canada’s non-nuclear submarines might have an advantage over Russia’s larger, noisier nuclear-powered vessels. Non-nuclear subs, which can shut off their engines and operate silently for extended periods, could prove to be a lethal adversary in the constrained and ice-laden Arctic straits. This capability, combined with the high-class sonar and modern torpedoes these subs are expected to carry, could shift the balance of power in certain naval engagements, especially in the contested Arctic region.

Timokhin went on to urge Russia to prepare for the new threat posed by Canada’s submarines, emphasizing that while the fleet will not be operational for at least another decade, the Kremlin should use the intervening years to bolster its defenses and develop countermeasures. He also pointed out that Canada’s procurement process is long and politically fraught, which could delay the delivery of the new submarines beyond the mid-2030s.

Strategic Importance of Canada’s Submarine Fleet

While Timokhin’s analysis highlights the threat perception from Russia’s perspective, Canadian experts, like Kate Todd from the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, are quick to point out that Canada’s submarine ambitions are primarily defensive. The new fleet will allow Canada to monitor and deter foreign vessels, including Russian and Chinese, from encroaching on Canadian waters without permission. In this sense, Canada’s new subs are seen as a crucial tool for protecting its sovereignty, particularly in the Arctic, where melting ice is opening up new shipping lanes and exposing the region to greater geopolitical competition.

The procurement of up to 12 submarines, spread across Canada’s three coasts, will enhance the country’s ability to safeguard its maritime approaches and contribute to collective defense efforts with its allies, especially in the Arctic. Submarines, often described as the “apex predators” of the seas, offer unmatched capabilities for stealth, surveillance, and deterrence, making them a vital component of Canada’s broader defense strategy.

The Road Ahead

Despite the clear strategic need for a modernized submarine fleet, Canada’s defense procurement history is marked by delays and political complications. With no definitive timeline yet for the acquisition of the new submarines, and a projected delivery date around 2035, there are concerns about potential capability gaps between the retirement of the Victoria-class submarines and the deployment of their replacements.

However, if the Canadian government can successfully navigate the complexities of the procurement process, the acquisition of 12 new submarines will represent a major leap forward for the Royal Canadian Navy and a significant boost to the country’s defense capabilities. This fleet will not only bolster Canada’s sovereignty over its maritime borders but also contribute to international security in a time of increasing geopolitical uncertainty.